Seasonal Stock Market Trends

CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Seasonality in the

Stock Market 1

The Concept of Seasons and Seasonality 2

What Is Seasonality? 5

The Pioneers of Stock Market Seasonality 7

Measuring Market Performance throughout This Book 9

How to Trade the Dow 11

Seasonal Trends to Consider 14

Summing Up 18

CHAPTER 2 The Month of January 21

The First Five Days of January 22

The Last Five Days of January 25

The January Barometer 27

The January Barometer as a Stand-Alone System 29

The JayNewary Barometer 31

The Ultimate January Barometer System 38

The Effect of Compounding 42

A Few Words of Warning 46

Summing Up 47

CHAPTER 3 Holiday Seasonal Trends 49

The Holidays 50

The Trading Day before Each Holiday 51

Two Days before Each Holiday 52

Three Days before and after Each Holiday 54

The Best Holiday Trading Days 56

The Ultimate Holiday System 61

The Most Wonderful Week of the Year (Usually) 63

Summing Up 65

CHAPTER 4 Monthly Seasonal Trends 67

The Best Day of the Month 68

The Trading Days of the Month 71

The Worst Trading Days of the Month 80

The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 1) 81

The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 2):

The Month-End/New-Month Pattern 83

The Most Wonderful Time of the Year 89

Monthly 10 Combined with the Santa Claus Rally 91

The Ultimate Monthly Days System 93

One Last Tweak 96

Summing Up 100

CHAPTER 5 Yearly Seasonal Trends 103

Decennial Patterns (Part 1: Ranking the Years) 104

Decennial Patterns (Part 2: The Best and Worst Years) 106

Decennial Patterns (Part 3: The Decennial Road Map) 110

Decennial Tendencies 111

Decade-by-Decade Performance 112

Intradecade Trends of Note 123

Intradecade Cycles Combined 130

Summing Up 136

CHAPTER 6 Repetitive Time Cycles of Note 139

The 212-Week Cycle 140

The 40-Week Cycle 146

The 53-Day Cycle 153

Combining Cycles 163

The Ultimate Time Cycles Model 168

Summing Up 172

CHAPTER 7 Election Cycle Investing 173

The Election Cycle: By the Years 175

The Election Cycle: By the Months 187

Two Other Patterns in the Election Cycle 205

The Ultimate Election Cycle System 210

Summing Up 214

CHAPTER 8 Sell in May and Go Away 219

November to May 220

What Is MACD? 225

Using MACD as a Filter 227

October through June for the Nasdaq 238

The Dead Zones 246

The Easiest Market-Beating Strategy in the World 260

October of Year 7 261

Summing Up 264

CHAPTER 9 Putting It All Together 267

Building Seasonal Trading Models 268

Building the KTI 271

Comparing Extreme KTI Readings 273

Model 1: The Long-Only Method 276

Model 2: The Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method 278

Model 3: Jay’s Ultimate Seasonal Barometer 281

Summing Up 284